Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability
Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability
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无序还是新秩序：气候变化如何影响物候变异
DOI：
10.1002/ecy.3846
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Pearse, William D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stemkovski, Michael;Bell, James R.;Ellwood, Elizabeth R.;Inouye, Brian D.;Kobori, Hiromi;Lee, Sang Don;Lloyd‐Evans, Trevor;Primack, Richard B.;Templ, Barbara;Pearse, William D.
春季物候的提前是人为气候变化的结果，但气候变化如何影响物候的年际变化尚不清楚。物种的物候时间反映了对一系列广泛的非生物需求（如热能）和生物相互作用（如捕食和授粉）的适应，而变异模式的变化可能会破坏这些适应和相互作用。在这里，我们对物候变化、温度敏感性和年际变化进行了地理和分类学上的广泛分析，涵盖了北半球大部分地区超过1000个物种的近10000个长期物候时间序列。我们发现，在寒冷和季节性较弱的地区，早季物种的出叶时间、开花时间、昆虫首次出现时间和鸟类到达时间对温度变化最敏感，并且以最快的速度提前。我们没有发现任何物候组在温暖年份变化的证据，尽管随着时间的推移，叶出和花的物候变化已经变得适度但显著减少。我们的研究结果表明，到目前为止，气候变化还没有从根本上改变年际物候变异的模式。
Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long‐term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf‐out, flowering, insect first‐occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early‐season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf‐out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.