Power laws governing epidemics in isolated populations
Power laws governing epidemics in isolated populations
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DOI：
10.1038/381600a0
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发表时间：
1996-06-13
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rhodes, CJ;Anderson, RM
在生物时间序列的非线性和混沌模式的识别和分析背景下，发达国家大型城市社区内麻疹病毒感染发病率的时间变化一直是讨论的焦点（1-11）。相比之下，小的孤立岛屿人口的麻疹记录是非常不规则的，因为感染的频繁淡出（12-14），传统的分析（15）没有产生有用的见解。在这里，我们使用的流行病的规模和持续时间的分布的测量表明，在这样的系统的动力学的干扰变得明显。具体地说，这些生物系统的特征在于定义良好的幂律，其方式让人想起物理科学中的其他非线性、空间扩展的动力系统（16-19）。我们进一步表明，所观察到的幂律指数很好地描述了一个简单的基于格子的模型，它反映了个体主机之间的社会互动。
TEMPORAL changes in the incidence of measles virus infection within large urban communities in the developed world have been the focus of much discussion in the context of the identification and analysis of nonlinear and chaotic patterns in biological time series(1-11). In contrast, the measles records for small isolated island populations are highly irregular, because of frequent fade-outs of infection(12-14), and traditional analysis(15) does not yield useful insight. Here we use measurements of the distribution of epidemic sizes and duration to show that regularities in the dynamics of such systems do become apparent. Specifically, these biological systems are characterized by well-defined power laws in a manner reminiscent of other nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical systems in the physical sciences(16-19). We further show that the observed power-law exponents are well described by a simple lattice-based model which reflects the social interaction between individual hosts.