A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions
A Multisystem View of Wintertime NAO Seasonal Predictions
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0153.1
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Gualdi, Silvio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Athanasiadis, Panos J.;Bellucci, Alessio;Gualdi, Silvio
最近，许多不同的季节预报系统都报告了冬季平均北大西洋涛动（NAO）和北极涛动（AO）的显着预测技巧。这些发现对于探索自然系统的可预测性很重要，但从社会经济的角度来看也很重要，因为提前预测北大西洋冬季大气环流异常的能力将对北美和欧洲国家产生重大利益。对于中纬度地区，许多预报系统在季节时间尺度上的预测能力显示为低至中等。最近的研究结果在这方面很有希望，表明如果气候系统的关键组成部分得到实际的初始化，并且耦合模式能够充分模拟与低频变率有关的主要过程和遥相关，就有可能进行更好的预报。结果表明，一个多系统的方法有前所未有的高预测能力NAO和AO，可能主要是由于增加集合的大小，部分是由于增加模式diversity.Predicting成功的冬季平均NAO并不能确保各自的气候异常也很好地预测。NAO对欧洲和北美有很强的影响，但它只能解释这些地区的年际和低频变化的一部分。在这里，它显示了一些不同的诊断，NAO/AO的高预测技能确实转化为更准确的预测温度，表面压力，和降水的影响，这遥相关的地区。
Significant predictive skill for the mean winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been recently reported for a number of different seasonal forecasting systems. These findings are important in exploring the predictability of the natural system, but they are also important from a socioeconomic point of view, since the ability to predict the wintertime atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic well ahead in time will have significant benefits for North American and European countries.In contrast to the tropics, for the mid latitudes the predictive skill of many forecasting systems at the seasonal time scale has been shown to be low to moderate. The recent findings are promising in this regard, suggesting that better forecasts are possible, provided that key components of the climate system are initialized realistically and the coupled models are able to simulate adequately the dominant processes and teleconnections associated with low-frequency variability. It is shown that a multisystem approach has unprecedented high predictive skill for the NAO and AO, probably largely due to increasing the ensemble size and partly due to increasing model diversity.Predicting successfully the winter mean NAO does not ensure that the respective climate anomalies are also well predicted. The NAO has a strong impact on Europe and North America, yet it only explains part of the interannual and low-frequency variability over these areas. Here it is shown with a number of different diagnostics that the high predictive skill for the NAO/AO indeed translates to more accurate predictions of temperature, surface pressure, and precipitation in the areas of influence of this teleconnection.