Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970-2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970-2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data
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DOI：
10.1016/s2468-2667(19)30177-x
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
50
通讯作者：
Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leon, David A.;Jdanov, Dmitry A.;Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.
自2010年以来，英国预期寿命的改善速度已经放缓。我们的目的是把这种趋势的变化在长期的背景下，并在一组其他高收入countries.Methods我们比较了自1970年以来的预期寿命和年龄别死亡率在英格兰和威尔士的性别特异性趋势的中位数值为22个高收入国家（在西欧，澳大利亚，加拿大，新西兰，日本和美国）。我们使用的年度死亡率数据（1970-2016）从人类死亡率Database.Findings直到2011-16，男性预期寿命在英格兰和威尔士遵循的中位预期寿命的比较组。相比之下，女性预期寿命低于中位数，是所审议国家中最低的。2011- 2016年，英格兰和威尔士男女预期寿命的改善速度急剧放缓，而由于所有成年年龄组的负面趋势，比较组的预期寿命改善速度放缓得更为温和。这种减速导致英格兰和威尔士与参照国之间的差距从2011年起不断扩大。自2000年代中期以来，英格兰和威尔士25-50岁人群的死亡率首次明显高于对照组。解释虽然自2011年以来许多国家的预期寿命增长放缓，但英格兰和威尔士的趋势是最糟糕的。女性预期寿命长期表现不佳，部分原因是各国吸烟流行的相对时间。以前被忽视的英格兰和威尔士年轻工作年龄成年人的死亡率高于其他国家，这一点值得紧急关注。版权所有（C）2019作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司发布
Background Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries.Methods We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA). We used annual mortality data (1970-2016) from the Human Mortality Database.Findings Until 2011-16, male life expectancy in England and Wales followed the median life expectancy of the comparator group. By contrast, female life expectancy was below the median and is among the lowest of the countries considered. In 2011-16, the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed sharply for both sexes in England and Wales, and slowed more moderately in the comparator group because of negative trends in all adult age groups. This deceleration resulted in a widening gap between England and Wales and the comparators from 2011 onwards. Since the mid-2000s, for the first time, mortality rates in England and Wales among people aged 25-50 years were appreciably higher than in the comparator group.Interpretation Although many countries have seen slower increases in life expectancy since 2011, trends in England and Wales are among the worst. The poor performance of female life expectancy over the long-term is in part driven by the relative timing of the smoking epidemic across countries. The previously overlooked higher mortality among young working-age adults in England and Wales relative to other countries deserves urgent attention. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.