The role of nitrogen in world food production and environmental sustainability
The role of nitrogen in world food production and environmental sustainability
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2006.03.009
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发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
van Zeijts, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eickhout, B.;Bouwman, A. F.;van Zeijts, H.
根据粮农组织的《世界农业：到2015/2030年》预测，我们将讨论1995-2030年期间的粮食生产、对土地利用的影响、氮的效率和活性氮对环境的损失。根据粮农组织的说法，未来30年，全球粮食产量可以跟上粮食需求增长的步伐。然而，根据这里使用的预测，全球可耕地将大幅增加(8%)，其中大部分在发展中国家，对热带雨林的面积将产生重大影响。可能会进行进一步的森林砍伐，以弥补因土地退化而导致的土壤生产力下降。尽管氮素利用效率有所提高，但在世界日益集约化的农业系统中，总的反应氮损失将强劲增长。在1995-2030年期间，集约农业系统的活性氮排放量将继续上升，特别是在发展中国家。因此，提高氮肥利用效率和进一步改善农艺管理必须在政策制定者的优先事项清单上保持优先地位。(C)2006爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
On the basis of the FAO projection 'World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030' we direct our discussion to food production, the consequences for land use, efficiency of nitrogen (N) and losses of reactive N to the environment during 1995-2030. According the FAO, global food production can keep pace with the increase in food demand in the coming three decades. However, according the projection used here, there will be a major global increase (8%) in arable land, most of it in developing countries and with a major impact on the extent of tropical forests. Further forest clearing may occur to compensate for declining soil productivity due to land degradation. Despite improvements in the N use efficiency, total reactive N loss will grow strongly in the world's increasingly intensive agricultural systems. In the 1995-2030 period emissions of reactive N from intensive agricultural systems will continue to rise, particularly in developing countries. Therefore, the increase of N use efficiency and further improvement of agronomic management must remain high on the priority list of policy makers. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.