The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China
The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Wu, Jianhong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang, Biao;Xia, Fan;Wu, Jianhong
目的：自2020年1月23日起，中国内地逐步实施并加强控制新型冠状病毒疫情的严格措施。检测和诊断也得到了改善。方法：针对传统的SEIR模型不能对控制策略的有效性进行评价的问题，利用包括累计报告病例数、累计死亡病例数、累计隔离病例数和累计疑似病例数的多样本数据集，提出了一种新的符合当前疫情过程和控制措施的SEIR模型。结果表明，疫情的发展趋势主要取决于隔离病例和疑似病例。预测的累计隔离和疑似病例数已接近静态，拐点已经出现，疫情高峰即将到来。使用无模型和基于模型的方法估计的有效繁殖数正在减少，新感染人数也在减少，而新报告的病例正在增加。结论：不确定性分析表明，中国大陆疫情仍具有不确定性，应继续加强检疫隔离策略，提高疫情检出率。(c)2020作者（S）由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Objectives: Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases.Results: Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models.Conclusions: The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China. (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.