Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined
Migration and fertility: Competing hypotheses re-examined
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DOI：
10.1007/s10680-005-3581-8
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发表时间：
2005-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kulu, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kulu, H
关于地域流动性对生育模式的影响存在着相互竞争的观点。早期研究表明，国内移民在很大程度上表现出在其童年环境中占主导地位的生育水平，而后来的研究发现移民的生育能力更接近目的地当地人。一些作者将后者归因于适应，另一些作者则认为移民的选择是根据生育偏好。此外，文献中还提出了居住搬迁的短期生育率降低效应并提出了质疑。本文通过分析国内移民对战后爱沙尼亚女性群体生育力的影响，为现有的讨论做出了贡献。我们使用回顾性事件历史数据并对单方程和联立方程应用强度回归。我们的分析表明，首先，原住民的出生风险随着定居点规模的增加而降低，并且高阶生育率的降低幅度更大。其次，它表明移民，无论其来源如何，在目的地都表现出与非移民相似的生育水平。我们还观察到，由于工会的成立而导致住宅搬迁后，生育水平有所提高。我们的进一步分析支持适应假设。我们没有发现任何证据表明生育偏好对移民具有（强）选择性。
Competing views exist concerning the impact of geographical mobility on childbearing patterns. Early research shows that internal migrants largely exhibit fertility levels dominant in their childhood environment, while later studies find migrants' fertility to resemble more closely that of natives at destination. Some authors attribute the latter to adaptation, others claim the selection of migrants by fertility preferences. Moreover, short-term fertility-lowering-effects of residential relocation have also been proposed and challenged in the literature. This paper contributes to the existing discussion by providing an analysis of the effect of internal migration on fertility of post-war Estonian female cohorts. We use retrospective event-history data and apply intensity regression for both single and simultaneous equations. Our analysis shows that first, the risk of birth for native residents decreases with increasing settlement size and the decrease is larger for higher-order parities. Second, it shows that migrants, whatever their origin, exhibit fertility levels similar to those of non-migrants at destination. We also observe elevated fertility levels after residential relocations arising from union formation. Our further analysis supports the adaptation hypothesis. We find no evidence on (strong) selectivity of migrants by fertility preferences.