How Safe Is Safe Enough for Self-Driving Vehicles?
How Safe Is Safe Enough for Self-Driving Vehicles?
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.13116
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发表时间：
2019-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Xu, Zhigang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Peng;Yang, Run;Xu, Zhigang
自动驾驶汽车（SDV）有望大大减少交通事故。公众、汽车制造商和政府面临的一个紧迫问题是“SDV的安全性如何？为了回答这个问题，首次提出了一种新的表达偏好方法来确定SDV的社会可接受风险。在我们的受试者间调查（N = 499）中，我们确定了受访者对不同交通风险频率场景的风险接受率，以检查交通风险频率和风险接受率之间的对数关系。将SDV的对数回归模型与人类驾驶车辆（HDV）的对数回归模型进行比较，结果表明SDV需要比HDV更安全。给定SDV和HDV相同的交通风险接受率，预测并比较了SDV和HDV的相关可接受风险频率。出现了两个风险接受标准：可容忍的风险标准，这表明SDV的安全性应该是HDV的四到五倍，以及广泛可接受的风险标准，这表明一半的受访者希望SDV的交通风险比目前估计的交通风险低两个数量级。该方法和这些结果可以为政府监管机构制定明确的SDV安全要求提供见解。
Self-driving vehicles (SDVs) promise to considerably reduce traffic crashes. One pressing concern facing the public, automakers, and governments is "How safe is safe enough for SDVs?" To answer this question, a new expressed-preference approach was proposed for the first time to determine the socially acceptable risk of SDVs. In our between-subject survey (N = 499), we determined the respondents' risk-acceptance rate of scenarios with varying traffic-risk frequencies to examine the logarithmic relationships between the traffic-risk frequency and risk-acceptance rate. Logarithmic regression models of SDVs were compared to those of human-driven vehicles (HDVs); the results showed that SDVs were required to be safer than HDVs. Given the same traffic-risk-acceptance rates for SDVs and HDVs, their associated acceptable risk frequencies of SDVs and HDVs were predicted and compared. Two risk-acceptance criteria emerged: the tolerable risk criterion, which indicates that SDVs should be four to five times as safe as HDVs, and the broadly acceptable risk criterion, which suggests that half of the respondents hoped that the traffic risk of SDVs would be two orders of magnitude lower than the current estimated traffic risk. The approach and these results could provide insights for government regulatory authorities for establishing clear safety requirements for SDVs.