Changing flood risks in estuaries due to global climate change: forecasts from observations, theory and models
Changing flood risks in estuaries due to global climate change: forecasts from observations, theory and models
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全球气候变化导致河口洪水风险发生变化：观测、理论和模型的预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Prandle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Lane;D. Prandle
全球气候变化导致的海平面上升和风暴增多，对世界各地河口的生存能力构成了重大威胁。虽然数值模式可以准确地模拟潮汐和浪涌对河口响应的变化，但它们不能可靠地预测相关的水深演变及其对这些响应的影响。在这里，展示了如何使用观测，理论和模型研究来理解潮汐动力学，沉积物制度和测深之间的这些不断发展的相互作用。以默西河口为研究对象，根据潮汐、沉积物和河口水深的历史变化来评估高分辨率三维模型的能力。新的理论框架可以用来解释参数灵敏度的系综模拟。这些方法应适用于广泛的河口。一般来说，大多数河口预计会有相对较小的渐变变化。然而，可以确定可能产生重大突变的条件。
Rising sea levels and enhanced storminess, resulting from Global Climate Change, pose major threats to the viability of estuaries worldwide. While numerical models can accurately simulate changes in estuarine responses for tides and surges, they cannot reliably predict related bathymetric evolution and its effects on these responses. Here, it is shown how observations, theory and model studies can be used to understand these evolving interactions between tidal dynamics, sediment regime, and bathymetry. Concentrating on the Mersey Estuary, the capabilities of a fine-resolution 3-D model are assessed against the perspective of historical changes in tides, sediments and esturarine bathymetries. New theoretical frameworks can be used to interpret ensemble simulations of parameter sensitivities. The methodologies should be applicable across a broad range of estuaries. Generally, relatively small and gradual changes are expected in most estuaries. However, conditions which might produce major abrupt changes are identified.