Invasion of infectious diseases in finite homogeneous populations
Invasion of infectious diseases in finite homogeneous populations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.035
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发表时间：
2011-11-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Ross, J. V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ross, J. V.
我们考虑传染病在一个有限的同质群体中的初始侵袭。提出了评估基本再生数R-0和继发感染概率质量函数的方法。有限的人口规模的影响，和传染期分布（指数，两相伽玛，常数之间），进行了评估。传染病的入侵和估计的传染病模型和参数的数据，最初感染的个人在幼稚的，有限的，同质的人群中的继发感染的影响。由于任何个体在其感染期间与有限数量的接触者相互作用，因此这些结果对传染病动力学的研究很重要。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
We consider the initial invasion of an infectious disease in a finite, homogeneous population. Methodology for evaluating the basic reproduction number, R-0, and the probability mass function of secondary infections is presented. The impact of finite population size, and infectious period distribution (between exponential, two-phase gamma, and constant), is assessed. Implications for infectious disease invasion and estimation of infectious disease model and parameters from data of secondary infections by initially infected individuals in naive, finite, homogeneous populations are reported. As any individual interacts with a finite number of contacts during their infectious period, these results are important to the study of infectious disease dynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.