The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry
The influence of COVID-19 on grid parity of China's photovoltaic industry
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COVID-19对中国光伏行业平价上网的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10653-020-00701-4
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Bin Ye
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yazhi Song;Tiansen Liu;Yin Li;Bin Ye
随着技术和政策因素更加高效地参与我国全产业链，2020年是光伏产业实现平价上网的关键时期。在此背景下，COVID-19可能会引发新装光伏项目一定的延迟，从而给整个光伏行业带来不确定的影响。为了预测COVID-19对光伏行业的影响程度和影响周期，本文首先明确了疫情的主要特征以及疫情沿产业链传播的基本规律。然后，本文构建了针对COVID-19影响下光伏发电成本核算的系统动力学模型，从而预测了光伏发电平准化度电成本（LCOE）和各子系统运营成本的变化规律、叠加效应和影响周期。实证结果显示，光伏行业对COVID-19的反应存在1个季度的滞后性和4个季度的阶段性反应，主要体现在短期生产成本的上升。同时，COVID-19对光伏行业上游企业的影响要强于下游企业。随着全产业链逐步恢复，光伏发电度电成本将在2020年底快速恢复到此前平价上网的预期水平。
With the more efficient involvement of both technology and policy factors in China’s whole industry-chain, the year 2020 is a key period for photovoltaic (PV) industry to achieve grid parity. In this context, COVID-19 may trigger a certain time-delay in new installed PV projects, thereby bringing an uncertain influence on the whole PV industry. To forecast the influence degree and influence cycle of COVID-19 on PV industry, this paper firstly clarifies the key features of epidemic situation as well as the basic rule of such pandemics’ transmission along industry-chain. Then this paper constructs a system dynamics model targeting at cost accounting of PV power generation under the influence of COVID-19 and thus forecasts the variation rules, superposition effects and influence cycle of levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of PV power generation and the operations cost of each sub-system. Empirical results show that PV industry has a lag response to the COVID-19 for 1 quarter and periodic response for 4 quarters, which is mainly embodied in the rise of short-term production cost. At the same time, the influence of COVID-19 on the upstream firms of PV industry is stronger than that on downstream firms. With the gradual recovery of whole industry-chain, LCOE of PV power generation will rapidly return to the previous expected level of grid parity by the end of 2020.