Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus
Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus
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DOI：
10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.04.004
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Leeper, Eric M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davig, Troy;Leeper, Eric M.
政府支出的增加引发替代效应（跨时期和跨时期）以及财富效应。对经济的最终影响取决于当前和预期的货币和财政政策行为。实施主动货币政策和被动财政政策的研究通常发现政府消费排挤私人消费：未来更高的税收会产生强烈的负财富效应，而积极的货币政策则会提高实际利率。本文估计了美国的马尔可夫转换政策规则，发现货币和财政政策在主动行为和被动行为之间波动。当估计的联合政策过程应用于传统的新凯恩斯主义模型时，政府支出在某些政策制度和所有政策制度都实现的模拟数据中产生正消费乘数。该论文报告了该模型对《美国复苏和再投资法案》在替代货币财政政策组合下政府支出隐含路径的宏观经济影响的预测。 (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects-both inter- and intra-temporal-and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary-fiscal policy combinations. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.