Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the future of humid tropical forests
Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the future of humid tropical forests
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1755-263x.2010.00133.x
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Heyder, Ursula
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Asner, Gregory P.;Loarie, Scott R.;Heyder, Ursula
新的毁林和选择性采伐数据以及气候变化预测表明，湿润热带森林中的生物多样性避难所可能比以前报道的变化更广泛。然而，气候变化和土地利用的相对影响因地区而异。在亚马逊地区，气候变化和土地利用的结合使该地区81%的地区容易受到快速植被变化的影响。在刚果，伐木和气候变化可能对流域35-74%的生物多样性产生负面影响。与拉丁美洲或非洲相比，气候驱动的变化在亚洲-大洋洲的作用可能较小，但土地利用使60-77%的亚洲-大洋洲易受重大生物多样性变化的影响。到2100年，只有18-45%的生物群落将保持完整。这些结果为预测气候变化的地理信息提供了新的输入，以更好地确定本世纪哪些地方的生物保护可能最有效。
New deforestation and selective logging data and climate change projections suggest that biodiversity refugia in humid tropical forests may change more extensively than previously reported. However, the relative impacts from climate change and land use vary by region. In the Amazon, a combination of climate change and land use renders up to 81% of the region susceptible to rapid vegetation change. In the Congo, logging and climate change could negatively affect the biodiversity in 35-74% of the basin. Climate-driven changes may play a smaller role in Asia-Oceania compared to that of Latin America or Africa, but land use renders 60-77% of Asia-Oceania susceptible to major biodiversity changes. By 2100, only 18-45% of the biome will remain intact. The results provide new input on the geography of projected climate change relative to ongoing land-use change to better determine where biological conservation might be most effective in this century.