A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of California
A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of California
复制标题
加利福尼亚州海啸灾害概率分析
DOI：
10.1061/41050(357)57
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Somerville
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Thio;P. Somerville
我们使用海啸数值模拟和灾害概率积分的混合方法计算了加州海啸泛滥的概率危险地图。震源主要包括环太平洋地区的大型俯冲带震源。我们的方法使用两步过程：第一步包括基于数千次情景计算的概率近海波高的计算，其中包括通过使用逻辑树的认知不确定性以及通过对概率波高应用标准偏差(Sigma)来计算情感可变性。然后，我们使用这些离岸波高和震源分解，来开发一组完全非线性的海啸模拟，包括淹没，跨越概率离岸波高的范围。我们提供了几个具有工程意义的重现期的淹没图，并讨论了它们的含义和对基础设施应用的使用。
We have computed maps of probabilistic tsunami inundation hazard for California using a hybrid approach of numerical tsunami simulations and probabilistic integration of the hazard. The earthquake sources mainly include large subduction zone sources around the Pacific Rim. Our method uses a two-step process: the first step consists of the computation of probabilistic offshore waveheights, based on several thousands of scenario calculations, that include both epistemic uncertainty through the use of logic trees as well as aleatory variability, by applying a standard deviation (sigma) to the probabilistic waveheights. We then use these offshore waveheights, and the source disaggregation, to develop sets of fully non-linear tsunami simulations, including inundation, that span the range of probabilistic offshore waveheights. We present inundation maps for several return periods of engineering interest and discuss their implications and use for infrastructure applications.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hiroaki Sato;H. Murakami;Y. Kozuki;Naoaki Yamamoto
通讯作者：
Hiroaki Sato;H. Murakami;Y. Kozuki;Naoaki Yamamoto