The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties' Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
The Causal Effect of Radical Right Success on Mainstream Parties' Policy Positions: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
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DOI：
10.1017/s0007123418000029
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Krause, Werner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Abou-Chadi, Tarik;Krause, Werner
本文探讨了极右翼政党的成功如何影响主流政党的政策立场。我们使用回归不连续方法来做到这一点，该方法使我们能够将主流政党的立场变化因果地归因于独立于公众舆论的激进右翼力量，这是一个潜在的混杂因素。利用选举门槛差异产生的外生变异，我们实证地证明了极右翼的成功确实会对主流政党的立场产生因果影响。主流左翼和主流右翼政党都是如此。这些发现对更广泛的政党竞争文献做出了重要贡献，因为它们表明，其他政党的行为，而不仅仅是公众舆论，在解释政党的政策转变方面起着至关重要的作用。
This article investigates how the success of radical right parties affects the policy positions of mainstream parties. We do this using a regression discontinuity approach that allows us to causally attribute mainstream parties' positional changes to radical right strength independent of public opinion as a potential confounder. Making use of exogenous variation created through differences in electoral thresholds, we empirically demonstrate that radical right success, indeed, causally affects mainstream parties' positions. This is true for mainstream left as well as mainstream right parties. These findings make an important contribution to the broader literature on party competition as they indicate that other parties' behavior and not only public opinion plays a crucial role in explaining parties' policy shift.