Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump
Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump
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解释民族主义政治观点：唐纳德·特朗普的案例
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2822059
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Pablo Diego
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Rothwell;Pablo Diego
2016 年美国总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 打破了历任共和党总统在贸易、移民和战争方面的政策，转而支持更加民族主义和民粹主义的政纲。我们使用针对 125,000 名美国成年人的详细盖洛普调查数据，分析了预测对特朗普有利的可能性较高的个人和地理因素。结果显示，经济困境激发了特朗普的支持，这一点好坏参半。他的支持者受教育程度较低，更有可能从事蓝领职业，但他们的家庭收入相对较高，失业或面临贸易或移民竞争的可能性也同样如此。另一方面，生活在种族隔离的社区，健康状况较差，社会流动性较低，社会资本较少，对社会保障收入的依赖程度较高，对资本收入的依赖程度较低，则预示着特朗普的支持率会更高。我们使用机器学习算法和大量附加变量确认了回归分析的理论结果。
The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for 125,000 American adults, we analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relatively high household incomes and are no less likely to be unemployed or exposed to competition through trade or immigration. On the other hand, living in racially isolated communities with worse health outcomes, lower social mobility, less social capital, greater reliance on social security income and less reliance on capital income, predicts higher levels of Trump support. We confirm the theoretical results of our regression analysis using machine learning algorithms and an extensive set of additional variables.