The Dynamics of Party Preference Change in Britain, 1991–1996
The Dynamics of Party Preference Change in Britain, 1991–1996
复制标题
英国政党偏好变化动态，1991-1996
DOI：
10.1111/1467-9248.00197
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发表时间：
1999
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
M. Brynin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
David Sanders;M. Brynin
本文研究了1991年至1996年英国家庭小组调查前六波的个人数据。分析表明，这一时期政党支持率的变化受到两组因素的显著影响，这两组因素在传统上被认为是选民政治偏好变化的重要来源：意识形态和个人经济经历。意识形态的变化对政党偏好的直接影响要比经济因素大得多。然而，客观的经济条件和主观的经济观念都对意识形态的变化本身产生了显着的影响，这意味着经济因素也对选民的党派偏好产生了重要的间接影响。这些个人层面的研究结果为总体层面的研究结果提供了重要的佐证，这些研究一直发现，经济因素-特别是经济观念-在决定党派支持模式方面发挥着重要作用。
The paper examines individual-level data from the first six waves of the British Household Panel Survey, 1991–96. The analysis shows that changes in party support in this period were significantly affected by two sets of factors that have traditionally been regarded as important sources of changes in voters' political preferences: ideology and personal economic experiences. Ideological change is demonstrated to have much stronger direct effects on party preference than economic factors. However, both objective economic conditions and subjective economic perceptions are shown to have significant effects on ideological change itself, implying that economic factors also exert important indirect effects on voters' partisan preferences. These individual-level findings provide important corroboration for the results of aggregate-level studies, which have consistently found that economic factors – and in particular economic perceptions – play a major role in determining patterns of partisan support.