Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models
Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models
复制标题
谁的概率？
DOI：
10.1086/656815
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
W. Parker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Parker
当今对未来气候的最复杂的模拟研究不仅使用一个气候模型，而且使用许多模型。我解释了为什么这种“合奏”的方法已被采用，即作为一种手段，考虑到不确定性，为什么不确定性的全面调查仍然难以捉摸。然后，我捍卫两个阵营之间的中间立场，在一个正在进行的辩论中的合奏结果转化为气候变化的概率预测，强调要求，我称之为所有权，理由和鲁棒性。
Today’s most sophisticated simulation studies of future climate employ not just one climate model but a number of models. I explain why this “ensemble” approach has been adopted—namely, as a means of taking account of uncertainty—and why a comprehensive investigation of uncertainty remains elusive. I then defend a middle ground between two camps in an ongoing debate over the transformation of ensemble results into probabilistic predictions of climate change, highlighting requirements that I refer to as ownership, justification, and robustness.