Modelling renewable energy impact on the electricity market in India
Modelling renewable energy impact on the electricity market in India
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DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2013.11.035
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发表时间：
2014-03
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
D. Chattopadhyay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Chattopadhyay
可再生能源发电的发展，特别是风能和太阳能，在印度以快速的速度发展，特别是在过去的四年里。虽然这些发展有许多积极的方面，但必须仔细评估基本负荷和间歇性发电平衡的快速转变，以确保可再生能源发电的份额增加，而不影响系统的安全性和经济性。风的季节性和空间变异性，以及在较小程度上太阳能的季节性和空间变异性，可能使这些资源在一年中的很大一部分时间内具有低可用性，导致未得到服务的能源增加，即，降低系统可靠性。发电的不稳定性也会影响国家间的电力流动，并导致电网中更高的拥塞。气候模型的结果提供了一套丰富的信息，太阳能/风能的可变性的性质，可以嵌入到电力市场模拟工具，以评估这些对价格，发电调度和电力流量的影响。我们根据CSIRO气候模型结果为印度国家电力市场开发了一个建模分析。我们已评估了因不稳定性而增加的成本，以正确看待可再生能源的真正成本和效益。我们重点关注2017年的近期发展，以说明印度国家电力计划中包含的一些高可再生能源增长情景可能对州际/地区间输电能力造成重大压力，并导致系统可靠性显著恶化。我们的建模分析结果表明，需要更加有序和平衡地发展可再生能源和常规发电能力，更加注重系统经济性和安全性。
Renewable power generation development, most notably for wind and solar, has taken off at a rapid pace in India especially in the last 4 years. While these developments have many positive aspects, a rapid shift in balance of baseload and intermittent generation must be assessed carefully to ensure the share of renewable power generation increases without compromising system security and economics. Seasonal and spatial variability of wind, and to a lesser extent that of solar, can render these resources to have low availability for a significant part of the year leading to an increase in unserved energy, i.e., deteriorate system reliability. The intermittency of generation also impacts on inter-state power flows and lead to higher congestion in the grid. Climate model results provide a rich set of information on the nature of solar/wind variability that can be embedded in an electricity market simulation tool to assess these impacts on prices, generation dispatch and power flows. We have developed a modelling analysis for the Indian national electricity market informed by CSIRO climate model results. We have assessed the added costs arising from intermittency to put in perspective the true costs and benefits of renewable power. We have focused on the near-term developments in 2017 to show how some of the high renewable growth scenarios included in the Indian National Electricity Plan may imply significant pressure on inter-state/region transfer capability, and lead to a significant worsening of system reliability. The outcome of our modelling analysis suggests that a more orderly and balanced development of renewable and conventional power generation capacity is needed with a stronger focus on system economics and security.