A rift valley fever atlas for Africa
A rift valley fever atlas for Africa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.05.006
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发表时间：
2007-11-15
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Otte, M. Joachim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clements, Archie C. A.;Pfeiffe, Dirk U.;Otte, M. Joachim
裂谷热（RVF）流行病对人类和动物健康以及牲畜贸易造成严重后果。最近，以前未受影响的地区也出现了疫情，增加了人们对裂谷热地理范围将继续扩大的担忧。我们对文献进行了广泛、系统的回顾，以获得 1970 年至 2000 年间从人类、牲畜和野生有蹄类动物种群中收集的非洲裂谷热血清学数据。目的是计算次国家级裂谷热感染流行率的估计值并确定无法获得信息的地区。我们使用地理信息系统提供了数据（在国家第一行政级别汇总）。来自 71 篇出版物的数据被用来构建空间明确的贝叶斯逻辑回归模型，具有空间和非空间随机效应，使我们能够识别高和低 RVF 血清流行率的集群，以及描述调查对象和方法不同性质的固定效应。显着的高流行集群包括在 20 世纪末经历过流行病的地区，显着的低流行集群位于西非和中非的邻近地区。 (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemics have serious consequences for human and animal health and the livestock trade. Recent epidemics have occurred in previously unaffected regions, increasing concerns that the geographical range of RVF will continue to expand. We conducted an extensive, systematic review of the literature to obtain serological data for RVF in Africa, collected between 1970 and 2000 from human, livestock and wild ungulate populations. Aims were to calculate sub-national estimates of RVF infection prevalence and to define areas where no information was available. We presented the data (aggregated at the first administrative level of countries) using a geographical information system. Data from 71 publications were used to build a spatially explicit Bayesian logistic-regression model, with spatial and non-spatial random effects, allowing us to identify clusters of high and low RVF seroprevalence, and fixed effects that described the disparate nature of the survey subjects and methods. Significant high-prevalence clusters encompassed areas that had experienced epidemics during the late 20th century and significant low-prevalence clusters were located in contiguous areas of Western and Central Africa. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.