Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States
Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2007476117
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发表时间：
2020-07-28
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Daw, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Verdery, Ashton M.;Smith-Greenaway, Emily;Daw, Jonathan
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行导致美国和世界各地的死亡率大幅上升，令许多人为突然失去家人而悲痛。我们创建了一个指标--COVID-19丧亲倍数--用于估计每一位COVID-19死亡者中将经历近亲（定义为祖父母、父母、兄弟姐妹、配偶或子女）死亡的平均人数。使用基于人口微观模拟的美国亲属网络估计值、不同背景下COVID-19死亡率的明显年龄梯度以及几种假设的感染流行情况，我们估计了美国白色和黑人个体的COVID-19丧亲倍数。我们的分析显示，每一个COVID-19死亡，大约9个幸存的美国人将失去一个祖父母，父母，兄弟姐妹，配偶或孩子。例如，这些估计意味着，如果像一些模型预测的那样，有19万美国人死于COVID-19，那么大约有170万人将经历近亲的死亡。我们证明，我们对丧亲之痛乘数的估计在流行病学现实中是稳定的，包括感染情景，死亡总数和死亡分布，这意味着研究人员可以估计流行病过程中的丧亲之痛负担，与死亡人数的上升保持同步。此外，我们还提供了按年龄组、亲属损失类型和种族划分的丧亲倍数估计值，以说明未来的差异。丧亲倍数是跟踪COVID-19倍增影响的有用指标，因为它在美国家庭中产生反响，并可针对其他死亡原因进行调整。
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to a large increase in mortality in the United States and around the world, leaving many grieving the sudden loss of family members. We created an indicator-the COVID-19 bereavement multiplier- that estimates the average number of individuals who will expe-rience the death of a close relative (defined as a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child) for each COVID-19 death. Using demographic microsimulation-based estimates of kinship net-works in the United States, the clear age gradient in COVID-19 mortality seen across contexts, and several hypothetical infection prevalence scenarios, we estimate COVID-19 bereavement multi-pliers for White and Black individuals in the United States. Our analysis shows that for every COVID-19 death, approximately nine surviving Americans will lose a grandparent, parent, sibling, spouse, or child. These estimates imply, for example, that if 190,000 Amer-icans die from COVID-19, as some models project, then similar to 1.7 million will experience the death of a close relative. We demonstrate that our estimates of the bereavement multiplier are stable across epi-demiological realities, including infection scenarios, total number of deaths, and the distribution of deaths, which means researchers can estimate the bereavement burden over the course of the epidemic in lockstep with rising death tolls. In addition, we provide estimates of bereavement multipliers by age group, types of kin loss, and race to illuminate prospective disparities. The bereavement multiplier is a useful indicator for tracking COVID-19's multiplicative impact as it reverberates across American families and can be tailored to other causes of death.