Current status of cataract blindness and Vision 2020: The right to sight initiative in India
Current status of cataract blindness and Vision 2020: The right to sight initiative in India
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DOI：
10.4103/0301-4738.42774
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发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Vashist, Praveen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murthy, G. V. S.;Gupta, Sanjeev K.;Vashist, Praveen
背景：印度是世界卫生组织《2020年愿景：视力权利》决议的签署国。所有利益相关者的努力导致印度白内障手术数量的增加，但这些努力对消除可避免的失明的影响尚不清楚。目的：预测未来15年白内障手术的表现，以确定印度是否有可能在2020年消除白内障失明。材料和方法：使用印度三十年来三次国家级失明调查的数据以及美国人口普查局预测的到2020年特定年龄人口来开发一个模型来预测白内障失明的严重程度和“2020年愿景”的影响：结果：使用50岁以上人群的特定年龄数据，观察到不同年龄组（50岁以上）的失明患病率在30年内有所下降，1989年达到高峰。预测表明，在50岁以上的人群中，白内障手术量将翻一番（2001年为338万例，到2020年将达到763万例），白内障手术率将从2001年的24025/50万增加到2020年的27817/50万。虽然白内障盲的患病率会下降，但由于印度50岁以上人口的大幅增加，白内障盲的绝对人数将从2001年的775万增加到2020年的825万。考虑到2001-2020年期间白内障失明的现有患病率和预计发病率、白内障手术后的视力结果和视力恢复率，到2020年，印度可能无法消除白内障失明。
Background: India is a signatory to the World Health Organization resolution on Vision 2020: The right to sight. Efforts of all stakeholders have resulted in increased number of cataract surgeries performed in India, but the impact of these efforts on the elimination of avoidable blindness is unknown.Aims: Projection of performance of cataract surgery over the next 15 years to determine whether India is likely to eliminate cataract blindness by 2020.Materials and Methods: Data from three national level blindness surveys in India over three decades, and projected age-specific population till 2020 from US Census Bureau were used to develop a model to predict the magnitude of cataract blindness and impact of Vision 2020: the right to sight initiatives.Results: Using age-specific data for those aged 50 years it was observed that prevalence of blindness at different age cohorts (above 50 years) reduced over three decades with a peak in 1989. Projections show that among those aged 50 years, the quantum of cataract surgery would double (3.38 million in 2001 to 7.63 million in 2020) and cataract surgical rate would increase from 24025/million 50 in 2001 to 27817/million 50 in 2020. Though the prevalence of cataract blindness would decrease, the absolute number of cataract blind would increase from 7.75 million in 2001 to 8.25 million in 2020 due to a substantial increase in the population above 50 years in India over this period.Conclusions: Considering existing prevalence and projected incidence of cataract blindness over the period 2001-2020, visual outcomes after cataract surgery and sight restoration rate, elimination of cataract blindness may not be achieved by 2020 in India.