21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord
21st Century Sea‐Level Rise in Line with the Paris Accord
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000688
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发表时间：
2018-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Jackson;A. Grinsted;S. Jevrejeva
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文献类型：
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作者：
L. Jackson;A. Grinsted;S. Jevrejeva
随着本世纪初全球平均海平面上升，人们对未来几十年全球和当地海平面将发生多大变化产生了极大的兴趣。 《巴黎气候协定》提出的 1.5°C 和 2°C 温度阈值促使研究界思考这两个州的气候系统存在哪些差异。我们开发了一种新颖的方法来结合遵循特定温度路径的气候模型输出，以对 1.5°C 和 2°C 世界中的海平面进行概率预测。我们发现全球海平面中值 (GSL) 预测 1.5°C 和 2°C 温度路径分别为 44 厘米和 50 厘米。到 2100 年，90% 的不确定性范围 (5%–95%) 均约为 48 厘米。此外，我们采用另一种方法，即使用半经验 GSL 模型来估计冰盖的贡献。在这里，我们发现 1.5°C 和 2°C 温度路径的中值预测分别为 58 和 68 cm。 90% 不确定度范围分别为 67 厘米和 82 厘米。区域预测显示两种温度路径的模式相似，但使用基于过程的方法对大部分海洋的中值预测（2-10厘米）和第95个百分位（5-20厘米）和使用半经验方法的10-15厘米（中值）和15-25厘米（第95个百分位）之间存在差异。
As global average sea‐level rises in the early part of this century there is great interest in how much global and local sea level will change in the forthcoming decades. The Paris Climate Agreement's proposed temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C have directed the research community to ask what differences occur in the climate system for these two states. We have developed a novel approach to combine climate model outputs that follow specific temperature pathways to make probabilistic projections of sea‐level in a 1.5°C and 2°C world. We find median global sea‐level (GSL) projections for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways of 44 and 50 cm, respectively. The 90% uncertainty ranges (5%–95%) are both around 48 cm by 2100. In addition, we take an alternative approach to estimate the contribution from ice sheets by using a semi‐empirical GSL model. Here we find median projections of 58 and 68 cm for 1.5°C and 2°C temperature pathways. The 90% uncertainty ranges are 67 and 82 cm respectively. Regional projections show similar patterns for both temperature pathways, though differences vary between the median projections (2–10 cm) and 95th percentile (5–20 cm) for the bulk of oceans using process‐based approach and 10–15 cm (median) and 15–25 cm (95th percentile) using the semi‐empirical approach.