A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering
A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Yoon, Jin-Ho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kravitz, Ben;MacMartin, Douglas G.;Yoon, Jin-Ho
全球尺度的太阳地球工程是对气候系统的有意修改，通过减少地表入射太阳辐射量来抵消一定程度的人为气候变化。这些行星能量收支的变化导致不同区域的气候效应。我们首次利用模式实验的结果定量评估了多模式背景下区域差异的可能性，该模式实验通过减少太阳辐照度来抵消二氧化碳增加四倍的强迫。我们评估了横跨地球大部分大陆区域的22个地理区域的温度和降水变化。对于所有地区和所有模式而言，适度的太阳能减少（最多可达全球平均温度恢复到工业化前水平的85%）导致的区域温度值比非地球工程的高二氧化碳世界更接近工业化前水平。然而，在除一个模式外的所有模式中，至少有一个区域的太阳活动再减少也无法使降水恢复到工业化前的水平。对于考虑这两个变量同时变化的大多数指标，在太阳适度减弱的情况下，所有区域的温度和降水量值比没有太阳减弱的情况更接近工业化前气候。
Global-scale solar geoengineering is the deliberate modification of the climate system to offset some amount of anthropogenic climate change by reducing the amount of incident solar radiation at the surface. These changes to the planetary energy budget result in differential regional climate effects. For the first time, we quantitatively evaluate the potential for regional disparities in a multi-model context using results from a model experiment that offsets the forcing from a quadrupling of CO2 via reduction in solar irradiance. We evaluate temperature and precipitation changes in 22 geographic regions spanning most of Earth's continental area. Moderate amounts of solar reduction (up to 85% of the amount that returns global mean temperatures to preindustrial levels) result in regional temperature values that are closer to preindustrial levels than an un-geoengineered, high CO2 world for all regions and all models. However, in all but one model, there is at least one region for which no amount of solar reduction can restore precipitation toward its preindustrial value. For most metrics considering simultaneous changes in both variables, temperature and precipitation values in all regions are closer to the preindustrial climate for a moderate amount of solar reduction than for no solar reduction.