Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen
Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gb005310
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ito, Taka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Long, Matthew C.;Deutsch, Curtis;Ito, Taka
在地球系统模型中，在自然变化的背景下，评估海洋溶解氧的人为强迫趋势。一个单一的地球系统模型的大合奏是用来清楚地识别内部氧气分布的变化的强迫分量，并评估这个信号相对于内部气候变率产生的噪声的幅度。强制趋势出现的时间根据氧浓度和趋势的异常进行量化。我们发现，在南印度洋和热带太平洋东部和大西洋盆地的部分地区，强迫信号应该已经很明显;到2030-2040年，可能会广泛检测到强迫脱氧。除了考虑空间离散的检测指标，我们评估与自然变异和强迫趋势相关的空间结构的相似性。在亚热带以外，这些模式在所考虑的等密度面上并不完全不同，因此，这种方法并不能提供显著的高级检测。我们的研究结果清楚地表明了自然气候变化对内部氧气分布的强烈影响，为解释观测提供了重要的背景。
Anthropogenically forced trends in oceanic dissolved oxygen are evaluated in Earth system models in the context of natural variability. A large ensemble of a single Earth system model is used to clearly identify the forced component of change in interior oxygen distributions and to evaluate the magnitude of this signal relative to noise generated by internal climate variability. The time of emergence of forced trends is quantified on the basis of anomalies in oxygen concentrations and trends. We find that the forced signal should already be evident in the southern Indian Ocean and parts of the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins; widespread detection of forced deoxygenation is possible by 2030-2040. In addition to considering spatially discrete metrics of detection, we evaluate the similarity of the spatial structures associated with natural variability and the forced trend. Outside of the subtropics, these patterns are not wholly distinct on the isopycnal surfaces considered, and therefore, this approach does not provide significantly advanced detection. Our results clearly demonstrate the strong impact of natural climate variability on interior oxygen distributions, providing an important context for interpreting observations.