Robust Solar Signature in Late Winter Precipitation Over Southern China
Robust Solar Signature in Late Winter Precipitation Over Southern China
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl084083
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发表时间：
2019-08
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hedi Ma;Haishan Chen;Anwei Lai;Xing Li;Ruili Wang;Chujie Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hedi Ma;Haishan Chen;Anwei Lai;Xing Li;Ruili Wang;Chujie Gao
11年太阳活动周期（SC）已被广泛认为是北方冬季区域气候变率的潜在来源。然而，华南冬季降水是否存在SC信号还不清楚。通过分析1901 - 2010年中国南方地区的陆面降水和太阳黑子数资料，发现中国南方地区冬末（1 - 3月）存在与南半球同步的强降水正响应，其中长江中游地区的降水正响应最显著（p <0. 01）。在初冬（12月至12月），只有不显著的负响应。晚冬SC-降水的关系随着时间的推移而持续，似乎主要是由于来自北大西洋/欧洲地区的太阳相关Rossby波列。我们的结果表明，增强的可预测性，在中国南方的晚冬降水。
The 11‐year solar cycle (SC) has been widely recognized as a potential source of regional climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, whether an SC signal exists in the southern China winter precipitation remains unclear. By analyzing land surface precipitation and sunspot number data from 1901 to 2010 in this study, evidence of a robust positive precipitation response that is synchronous with the SC in late winter (January–March) over southern China is provided, and the most statistically significant signals (p < 0.01) are detected over the middle Yangtze River basin. In early winter (October–December), there are only nonsignificant negative responses. The late winter SC‐precipitation relationship persists over time and appears to largely result from a solar‐associated Rossby wave train originating from the North Atlantic/European region. Our results indicate an enhanced predictability of late winter precipitation over southern China.