Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics
Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1519911113
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发表时间：
2016-04-05
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Regan, Helen M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Franklin, Janet;Serra-Diaz, Josep M.;Regan, Helen M.
全球变化的人为驱动因素包括大气中二氧化碳和其他温室气体浓度的上升及其导致的气候变化，以及氮沉降、生物入侵、干扰机制的改变和土地使用的变化。预测全球变化对陆地植物群落的影响至关重要，因为植被提供了从气候调节到森林产品的生态系统服务。在本文中，我们提出了一个框架，检测植被变化，并将其归因于全球变化的驱动因素，包括多线的证据，从空间上广泛的监测网络，分布式实验，遥感数据和历史记录。基于文献综述，我们总结了观察到的变化，然后描述建模工具，可以预测在一个快速变化的时代，多种驱动因素对植物群落的影响。观察到的温度，水分，养分，土地利用和干扰的变化的反应表明，生态系统的生产力和植物种群动态的水平衡和长期的干扰对植物群落动态的影响具有很强的敏感性。土地使用变化和人为改变的火灾状况对植被的持续影响可能掩盖气候变化的影响，或与气候变化的影响相互作用。预测植物群落对全球变化的响应的模型包括生态位的变化、种群动态、物种间的相互作用、空间上明确的干扰、生态系统过程和植物功能响应。监测，实验和模型评估多种变化的驱动因素，需要检测和预测植被变化响应21世纪世纪全球变化。
Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.