Estimation of debris‐flow magnitude in the Eastern Italian Alps
Estimation of debris‐flow magnitude in the Eastern Italian Alps
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DOI：
10.1002/esp.1027
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发表时间：
2004-02
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
L. Marchi;V. D’Agostino
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Marchi;V. D’Agostino
泥石流震级估算是泥石流灾害评价的重要环节。尽管已经开发了不同的方法来评估泥石流强度，但这仍然是一项艰巨的任务，因为泥石流过程的复杂性以及许多山区缺乏测试评估程序的数据。意大利东部阿尔卑斯山 127 个盆地的泥石流强度数据来自科学和技术期刊、技术报告、当地档案馆收集的历史文件以及实地调查。这些数据用于开发和测试不同的预测方法，包括回归方程、地貌调查和时间序列的概率分析。回归技术用于将泥石流强度与盆地的形态参数和地质特征相关联。将文献中提出的河道碎片产生率（河道单位长度的贡献）值与研究区的数据进行比较，以确定不同形态特征的河道段的参考值。尽管仅限于可获得足够数据的少数盆地，但泥石流震级时间序列的概率分析提供了有关泥石流震级和频率之间关系的指示。提出了有关所考虑方法的能力和缺点的一些观察结果，并建议结合使用不同的方法来估计泥石流强度。版权所有 © 2004 约翰·威利父子有限公司
The estimation of debris‐flow magnitude is an essential step in the assessment of debris‐flow hazard. Although different methods have been developed for the assessment of debris‐flow magnitude, this is still a difficult task because of the complexity of flow processes and the lack of data to test estimation procedures in many mountainous regions. Data on debris‐flow magnitude from 127 basins in the Eastern Italian Alps have been collected from scientific and technical journals, technical reports, historical documents gathered from local archives, and field surveys. These data were used to develop and test different predictive approaches, encompassing regression equations, geomorphological surveys and probabilistic analysis of time series. Regression techniques were used to correlate debris‐flow magnitude to morphometric parameters and geological characteristics of the basins. Values of the channel debris yield rate (contribution per unit length of channel), proposed in the literature, were compared with data from the study area for identifying reference values for channel stretches of different morphological characteristics. Although limited to the few basins in which sufficient data were available, the probabilistic analysis of time series of debris‐flow magnitude provides indications about the relations between magnitude and frequency of debris flows. Some observations about the capability and drawbacks of considered methods are presented and the combined use of different approaches for the estimation of debris‐flow magnitude is suggested. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.