NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability
复制标题
NAO 是北半球平均温度数十年变化的预测因子
DOI：
10.1002/2013gl057877
复制
发表时间：
2013-10-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jin, Fei-Fei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Jianping;Sun, Cheng;Jin, Fei-Fei
二十世纪北半球平均地表温度 (NHT) 的特点是数十年的变暖-变冷-变暖模式，随后自 2000 年左右以来呈平坦趋势（最近变暖中断）。在这里，我们证明北大西洋涛动 (NAO) 是 NHT 数十年变化的有用预测因子。观测分析表明，NAO 领先去趋势的 NHT 和海洋大西洋多年代际振荡 (AMO) 15-20 年。理论分析表明，由于与缓慢海洋过程相关的大热惯性，NAO 对 AMO 的延迟影响先于 NHT 数十年变化。因此建立了基于NAO的线性模型来预测NHT，这为1971-2011年的NHT提供了很好的后报，并且很好地预测了近期的平坦趋势。由于最近 NAO 十年间的减弱暂时抵消了人为引起的变暖，预计 2012 年至 2027 年 NHT 将略有下降。
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.