Investigating causes of changes in runoff using hydrological simulation approach
Investigating causes of changes in runoff using hydrological simulation approach
复制标题
利用水文模拟方法研究径流变化的原因
DOI：
10.1007/s13201-016-0396-1
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Junsong Luo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guoqing Wang;Jianyun Zhang;Xuemei Li;Zhenxin Bao;Yanli Liu;Cuishan Liu;Ruimin He;Junsong Luo
河流流量在环境、社会和经济方面发挥着至关重要的作用。研究径流量变化的原因，对于更好地进行水资源管理具有重要意义。以黄土高原水土流失严重的黄河支流孤山河为研究对象，采用水文模拟方法，分析了该流域历年径流量的变化趋势，探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响。结果表明：孤山河高石崖站1954-2013年径流量呈明显下降趋势，1973年出现突变。SimHyd降雨径流模型对月径流量的模拟效果较好，Nash-Sutcliffe系数为82.6%，相对误差为0.32%。1980-2013年流域径流深度较前一时期减少52.4 mm，其中人类活动和气候变化分别贡献了总径流减少量的61.5%和38.5%。然而，人为造成的影响有增加的趋势。因此，黄土高原生态环境的改善应充分重视人类活动的影响。
Stream flow plays a crucial role in environmental, social and economic contexts. It is of significance to investigate the causes of change in runoff for better water resources management. This study detects the variation trend of recorded runoff of the Gushan River, a tributary of the Yellow River located on the Loess Plateau with severe soil and water losing, and investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using hydrological simulation approach. Results show that the recorded runoff at Gaoshiya station on the Gushan River has experienced a significant declining trend from 1954–2013 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. SimHyd rainfall runoff model performs well for monthly discharge simulation with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 82.6 % and relative error of 0.32 %. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1980–2013 reduced by 52.4 mm compared to the previous period, in which human activities and climate change contribute 61.5 and 38.5 % of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the human-induced impact tends to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of human activity.