Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models
Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciy003
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发表时间：
2018-06-15
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
de Vlas, Sake J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stolk, Wilma A.;Prada, Joaquin M.;de Vlas, Sake J.
背景。随着2020年消除淋巴丝虫病（LF）目标年的临近，迫切需要评估每年伊维菌素+阿苯达唑（IA）或乙基卡马嗪+阿苯达唑（DA）的大规模药物给药（MDA）计划还需要持续多久，以及如何加速消除。我们使用数学建模方法来解决这个问题。我们使用3个结构不同的微丝虫传播数学模型（EPIFIL， LYMFASIM， TRANSFIL）来模拟一系列流行环境下微丝虫（mf）流行趋势，包括当前的年度MDA策略和替代策略，评估将mf流行率降低到1%的临界阈值以下所需的时间。每年三次有IA或DA和良好覆盖率（>= 65%）的MDA轮足以达到目前处于mf患病率的设置的阈值
Background. With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling.Methods. We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%.Results. Three annual MDA rounds with IA or DA and good coverage (>= 65%) are sufficient to reach the threshold in settings that are currently at mf prevalence