Climate change vulnerability assessments:: An evolution of conceptual thinking
Climate change vulnerability assessments:: An evolution of conceptual thinking
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-006-0329-3
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发表时间：
2006-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Klein, Richard J. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fuessel, Hans-Martin;Klein, Richard J. T.
脆弱性是气候科学和政策的一个新兴概念。在过去十年中，评估气候变化脆弱性的努力引发了一个理论发展和评估实践的过程，这反映在政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的报告中。本文回顾了气候变化脆弱性评估所依据的概念性思想的历史发展。我们区分了气候影响评估、第一代和第二代脆弱性评估以及适应政策评估。通过一个概念框架描述了不同代的评估，该框架界定了评估的关键概念及其分析关系。这一概念框架的目的有两个：第一，提供一个连贯一致的直观词汇表，说明气专委处理脆弱性及其评估办法所依据的主要概念;第二，说明脆弱性评估的演变。这一演变的特点是，逐步纳入了气候变化脆弱性的非气候决定因素，包括适应能力，并从估计预期损害转向试图减少损害。我们希望，这份文件不仅在气候变化界，而且在其他科学界的研究人员中增进对气候变化脆弱性评估的主要方法及其演变的理解，这些研究人员有时对气候变化方面不熟悉的技术术语的使用感到困惑。
Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change.