Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria
Simulation of climate-change scenarios to explain Usutu-virus dynamics in Austria
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.06.023
复制
发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Rubel, Franz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brugger, Katharina;Rubel, Franz
在目前气候变化的情况下，中纬度地区传染病的出现和传播，迄今主要在热带地区观察到，大大增加。最近的一个例子是奥地利爆发的埃博拉病毒。USUV与美国的西尼罗河病毒密切相关，主要导致黑鸟（Turdus merula）的大规模死亡。USUV黄病毒持续存在于病媒（蚊子）和宿主（鸟类）之间的自然传播循环中，并导致-一旦在人群中流行-定期爆发。在一个解释2001 - 2005年奥地利USUV动态的流行病模型中，USUV动态主要由鸟类免疫力和环境温度的相互作用决定。为了研究未来的情景，我们将五个全球气候模型的温度预测输入USUV模型，并考虑了由政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）定义的四种不同的气候变暖情景（20种不同的模型-情景组合）。我们缩小了20个预测温度的时间序列（到2100年），以代表维也纳周围的地区。我们的模拟预测，USUV将持续在2003年观察到的流行高峰后，在主机人口。UUV特异性黑鸟年死亡率时间序列预测，从世纪开始到结束，爆发频率依次增加。模拟最坏的情况下，在地方性平衡的黑鸟种群下降约24%。此外，我们还计算了1901-2100年期间的年平均基本再生产数量。后者表明，在2000年之前不太可能发生未被发现的重大疫情，而USUV很可能在2040年之后成为地方病。(C)2008 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
The emergence and spread of infectious diseases in mid-latitudes, so far mainly observed in the tropics, considerably increase under the current situation of climate change. A recent example is the Usutu virus (USUV) outbreak in Austria. USUV is closely related to the West Nile virus in the U.S. and caused mass mortalities mainly of blackbirds (Turdus merula). The USUV flavivirus persists in a natural transmission cycle between vectors (mosquitoes) and host reservoirs (birds) and leads - once endemic in a population - to periodic outbreaks. In an epidemic model to explain the USUV dynamics in Austria 20012005, USUV dynamics were mainly determined by an interaction of bird immunity and environmental temperature. To investigate future scenarios, we entered temperature predictions from five global climate models into the USUV model and also considered four different climate-warming scenarios defined by the I ntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (20 different model-scenario combinations). We downscaled the 20 time series of predicted temperatures (through the year 2100) to represent the region around Vienna. Our simulations predict that USUV will persist in the host population after the epidemic peak observed in 2003. USUV-specific annual blackbird-mortality time series predict that the outbreak frequency increases successively from the beginning to the end of the century. Simulations of worst-case scenarios result in an endemic equilibrium with a decline of the blackbird population of about 24%. Additionally we calculated the annually averaged basic reproduction number for the period 1901-2100. The latter depict that undetected major outbreaks before 2000 were unlikely, whereas it is likely that the USUV becomes endemic after 2040. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.