A model of animal-human brucellosis transmission in Mongolia
A model of animal-human brucellosis transmission in Mongolia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.01.017
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发表时间：
2005-06-10
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Vounatsou, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zinsstag, J;Roth, F;Vounatsou, P
我们建立了蒙古人畜间布鲁氏菌病传播的动态模型。隔室模型将羊和牛种群内的传播和对人类的传播视为相加成分。该模型符合牲畜的人口学和血清阳性数据(孟加拉玫瑰试验)，在大规模牲畜疫苗接种运动(牛接种S19布鲁氏菌流产，绵羊和山羊接种羊布鲁氏菌)开始之前，蒙古1991-1999年每年报告新的人间布鲁氏菌病病例。接种效果与接种运动前3年的家畜和人布鲁氏菌病数据相吻合(20002002)。在拟合优度的基础上对参数进行优化(通过偏差进行评估)。同时拟合的羊-人和牛-人接触率表明，90%的人布鲁氏菌病是由小反刍动物衍生的。1999年羊的平均有效繁殖率为1.2，牛的平均有效繁殖率为1.7。(C)2005 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
We developed a dynamic model of livestock-to-human brucellosis transmission in Mongolia. The compartmental model considers transmission within sheep and cattle populations and the transmission to humans as additive components. The model was fitted to demographic and seroprevalence data (Rose Bengal test) from livestock and annually reported new human brucellosis cases in Mongolia for 1991-1999 prior to the onset of a mass livestock-vaccination campaign (S19 Brucella abortus for cattle and Rev I Brucella melitensis for sheep and goat). The vaccination effect was fitted to livestock- and human-brucellosis data from the first 3 years of the vaccination campaign (20002002). Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (assessed by the deviance). The simultaneously fitted sheep-human and cattle-human contact rates show that 90% of human brucellosis was small-ruminant derived. Average effective reproductive ratios for the year 1999 were 1.2 for sheep and 1.7 for cattle. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.