Comment on “The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands” by Gert Zöller and Matthias Holschneider
Comment on “The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands” by Gert Zöller and Matthias Holschneider
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对“荷兰格罗宁根气田生产引发的地震的最大可能和最大预期地震震级”的评论，作者：Gert Zöller 和 Matthias Holschneider
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. V. Elk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Bommer;J. V. Elk
Zoller和Holschneider（2016）通过将Zoller和Holschneider（2014）的方法应用于格罗宁根油田的地震目录，提出了荷兰格罗宁根油田天然气生产引起的诱发地震的最大震级估计。我们既不想对作者提出的分析方法发表任何评论，也不想对他们在这一特定应用中的结果发表评论。我们确实觉得有义务向读者澄清Zoller和Holschneider（2016）研究的背景，与他们提到的2016年3月的研讨会有关。特别是，他们导言中的一句话，“本简短说明提供了这些作者的结果”（第2917页），可以解释为暗示他们的论文介绍了研讨会的结果。Zoller和Holschneider（2016）的论文总结了对研讨会做出贡献的众多投入之一，但不是研讨会的最终成果。
为了应对格罗宁根气田的诱发地震，油田运营商Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij（NAM）正在进行广泛的数据采集和建模工作，以量化随之而来的地震危害和风险，作为制定适当缓解措施的决策基础。研究的所有要素都要经过同行评审，结果在公开文献中提出（例如，Bourne等人，2014，2015; Bommer et al.，2016）。最初，对气田进行的概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）的最大震级M max被设定为M 6.5，该值是从地震矩获得的，该地震矩对应于在生产寿命结束时与整个气田压实相关的应变能，在单个地震事件中释放（Bourne等人，2009年）。，2015）。尽管观察到的应变分配因子（即，总应变的一部分
Zoller and Holschneider (2016) propose estimates of the maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes resulting from gas production in the Groningen field in The Netherlands by applying the approach of Zoller and Holschneider (2014) to the earthquake catalog for the Groningen field. We wish neither to make any comment on the analytical approach that the authors propose, nor to comment on their results in this particular application. We do feel obliged to clarify for readers the context of the study by Zoller and Holschneider (2016) in relation to the March 2016 workshop to which they refer. In particular, the sentence in their Introduction stating that “this short note provides the results of those authors” (p. 2917) could be interpreted as implying that their paper presents the results from the workshop. The paper by Zoller and Holschneider (2016) summarizes one of the many inputs that contributed to the workshop, but not the final outcome of the workshop.
In response to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field, the field operator Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM) is leading an extensive data acquisition and modeling effort to quantify the consequent seismic hazard and risk as a basis for decision making regarding appropriate mitigation measures. All the elements of the study are subject to peer review and the results presented in the open literature (e.g., Bourne et al. , 2014, 2015; Bommer et al. , 2016). Originally, the maximum magnitude M max for the probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA) conducted for the gas field was set at M 6.5, a value obtained from the seismic moment corresponding to the strain energy associated with the entire field compaction at the end of production life being released in a single seismic event (Bourne et al. , 2015). Although the observed strain partitioning factors (i.e., the portion of the total strain that …