Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach
Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach
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投资决策过度自信：一种实验方法
DOI：
10.1080/1351847042000255643
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Boris Maciejovsky
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dennis A. V. Dittrich;W. Güth;Boris Maciejovsky
摘要 通过实验诱导风险厌恶，研究了投资环境中的过度自信，并将实际投资决策的评估与替代选择进行比较。选择自己的投资后，受试者面临三种替代投资选择，包括最佳选择，并被问及他们是否愿意支付并用自己的替代选择来替代。过度自信被定义为对自己的投资决策持续高估。结果表明，过度自信随着（i）与最佳选择的绝对偏差而增加，（ii）随着任务复杂性涉及风险资产的数量而增加，（iii）随着个人感知的不确定性而减少。
Abstract By experimentally inducing risk aversion, overconfidence in an investment setting is investigated, comparing the evaluation of actual investment decisions with alternative choices. After selecting their own investment, subjects confront three alternative investment choices, including the optimal one, and are asked about their willingness to pay and to substitute their own for alternative choices. Overconfidence is defined as the persistent overevaluation of the own investment decision. Results indicate that overconfidence increases (i) with the absolute deviation from optimal choices, (ii) with task complexity involving the number of risky assets, and (iii) decreases with individual perceived uncertainty.