Research of landslide susceptibility after the Lushan earthquake based on Logistic regression model
Research of landslide susceptibility after the Lushan earthquake based on Logistic regression model
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发表时间：
2013
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通讯作者：
Gou Chang-jiang
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作者：
Gou Chang-jiang
2013年4月20日，中国四川芦山县发生7.0级地震。震中位于龙门县（北纬30.3°，东经102.95°），震源深度13公里。地震冲击产生的大量物质（滑坡碎片）被强降雨移动。基于遥感（RS）和地理信息系统（GIS），结合坡度、起伏幅度、土地覆被、断层距离和峰值地面加速度，采用Logistic回归方法绘制了庐山地区滑坡易感性图。这些数据来自不同的来源。构建421个滑坡的滑坡清单来产生因变量，取0为不存在，1为存在。最后，利用这些系数，给出了滑坡存在与否与一组自变量之间的关系。这些系数表明，断层距离和起伏幅度对滑坡的发生有重要影响。利用Jenks自然断裂将滑坡易感性指数分为低、中、高、极高四类。高、高敏感性区面积分别为31.23%和15.40%。通过受试者工作特征（ROC）来验证logistic回归模型的性能。ROC曲线下面积（AUC）为0.772，表明logistic回归方法用于滑坡易感性评价是可靠的，可用于重建过程。
On April 20,2013,Ms 7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan County,Sichuan,China.The quake center was located in Longmen Country(30.3°N,102.95°E) and the earthquake source at a depth of 13 km.A large amount of material(landslide debris) produced by the shock of the earthquake were moved by the heavy rainfall.Based on the remote sensing(RS) and geographic information system(GIS),this paper uses Logistic regression to make a landslide susceptibility map of the Lushan area in reference to slope,relief amplitude,land cover,distance to fault,and peak ground acceleration.The data are obtained from various sources.A landslide inventory of 421 landslides is constructed to produce the dependent variable,taking a value of 0 as the absence and 1 as the presence of slope failures.At last,the relationship between the presence or absence of landslides and a set of independent variables are showed using the coefficients.The coefficients imply that the distance to fault and relief amplitude play an important role in the occurrence of landslides.Using Jenks Natural Breaks,the landslide susceptibility index falls into four categories: low,medium,high and very high.The high and very high susceptibility covers an area of 31.23% and 15.40%,respectively.The performance of the logistic regression model is validated by the receiver operating characteristics(ROC).The area under the ROC curve(AUC) is 0.772,showing that the logistic regression method deployed in the assessment of the landslide susceptibility is reliable and can be used in the reconstruction process.