Linking the past and present to predict the distribution of Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) under global changes
Linking the past and present to predict the distribution of Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) under global changes
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联系过去和现在预测全球变化下朱鹮的分布
DOI：
10.1111/1749-4877.12581
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发表时间：
--
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Ye Xinping
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yu Fangyuan;Sun Yiwen;Wang Tiejun;Skidmore Andrew K.;Ding Changqing;Ye Xinping
了解物种的生态位如何随着时间的推移适应环境变化对于预测未来全球变化对濒危物种的影响至关重要。然而，很少有研究将过去生态位转移的知识纳入到对物种在不断变化的世界中未来命运的评估中。在这项研究中，我们将生态位动态整合到亚洲朱鹮（Nipponia nippon）在东亚的物种分布模型中。具体来说，我们比较了历史和现在的生态位朱鹭在四维环境空间的基础上，物种的发生和环境数据。然后，我们采用了一个多时相生态位模型来估计朱鹭在未来气候和土地利用变化下的潜在地理分布。我们的研究结果表明，朱鹭保留了类似的，但不相同的生态位随着时间的推移。与历史基线范围相比，目前朱鹭的适宜栖息地减少了39.6%。人类活动对朱鹭分布的影响超过了气候变化的影响。朱鹭的生态位趋于保守，未来的适宜栖息地可能向东北和西北方向移动，并可能比历史范围扩大18.7%。本研究的结果对于朱鹭在东亚的保护和成功放归具有重要意义。
Understanding how species’ ecological niches adapt to environmental changes through time is critical for predicting the effect of future global change on endangered species. Yet few studies have incorporated knowledge of past niche shifting into the assessment of species’ future fate in a changing world. In this study, we integrated the ecological niche dynamics into the species distribution modeling of the Asian crested ibis (Nipponia nippon) in East Asia. Specifically, we compared historical and present ecological niches of crested ibis in four‐dimensional environmental space based on species occurrence and environmental data. We then employed a multi‐temporal ecological niche model to estimate the potential geographical distribution of crested ibis under future climate and land‐use changes. Our results show that crested ibis retained similar though not identical ecological niches over time. Compared to the historical baseline range, the current suitable habitat for crested ibis has been reduced by 39.6%. The effects of human activity outweigh those of climate change regarding the distribution of crested ibis. We conclude that the ecological niche of crested ibis was tended to be conservative, and future potentially suitable habitat may encounter northeastward and northwestward shift, and possibly expand by 18.7% referred to the historical range. The findings of our study are of clear importance for the conservation and successful reintroduction of crested ibis in East Asia.