Building Resilient Communities: A Preliminary Framework for Assessment
Building Resilient Communities: A Preliminary Framework for Assessment
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发表时间：
2010-09
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通讯作者：
W. Parker;M. Hidek;P. H. Longstaff;Keli A. Perrin;Nicholas J. Armstrong
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作者：
W. Parker;M. Hidek;P. H. Longstaff;Keli A. Perrin;Nicholas J. Armstrong
许多国家的政府、非政府组织和社区领导人都面临着一项艰巨的任务：设计和实施政策、计划和系统，帮助当地社区科普从恐怖袭击到自然灾害等一系列威胁。在高度发达的社会中，这项任务往往因相关问题而复杂化，如老化、负担过重和复杂的关键基础设施系统; 1化学、生物、放射性、核和爆炸物威胁的灾难性潜力;以及许多全球运输和通信系统日益增加的互联性。建立对自然和人类的适应能力的想法-在当前的美国国家安全政策论述中，制造灾难现在是一个占主导地位的战略主题和行动目标。[2]然而，即使有无限的资源，一个社区也极不可能防止或保护自己免受可能面临的所有危险。例如，在美国，复杂的分配系统现在是向人口提供食物和水的主要机制。汽油动力车辆仍然是主要的运输方式。个人和组织的日常活动都是围绕着他们几乎无法控制的复杂系统进行的，例如电力、计算机系统和由远程卫星支持的通信网络。这些现代化的便利设施使社区的运作更有效率。然而，很少有人能够储备食物和水，或者在紧急情况下拥有替代的交通、发电或通信方式，同时，政府、社区和个人从来没有像现在这样毫无准备地科普基础设施、重要资源或公共产品和服务的干扰。部分问题在于，现代生活中这些复杂系统固有的效率通过冗余和多样性的丧失而降低了弹性。另一个方面是，很少有系统是以弹性作为规范来设计的。这些系统在灾难发生后恢复的能力将直接影响社区的响应和恢复能力。因此，在评估复原力时，必须考虑到社区必须依赖的所有资源。几十年来，不同学科的研究人员一直在各自领域内努力研究复原力的概念。3学者和实践者继续与这个概念搏斗，希望开发有用的规范性国土安全政策指导，4和社区一级的评估工具。5虽然关于如何起草复原力及其属性的精确定义，以及如何在每一学科中操作和应用复原力概念，仍有许多问题有待讨论，每个学科的研究重叠是重要的，足以说明是什么使系统具有弹性。最近对弹性的关注标志着抵抗战略的转变，这种转变仅仅集中在对风险的预测和对风险的缓解上。在面对灾害时，更包容的战略将抵抗力（预防、保护）和复原力（应对、恢复）结合起来。在过去，一些学者认为，预测策略应该用于关注已知的问题，而那些面向弹性的策略更适合于未知的问题。重要的是要指出，这两个方面各自都有不足之处。正如基于预期威胁的规划可以导致资源投资，以应对永远不会发生的危害，从更广泛的复原力角度进行规划可能需要短期转移资源，以确保长期可持续性。6.使挑战更加复杂的是，很难制定一个灵活的规划过程，以应对不断变化的情况。…
THE PROBLEMGovernments, non-governmental organizations, and community leaders in many countries face a daunting task: the design and implementation of policies, programs, and systems that help local communities cope with a panoply of threats ranging from terrorist attacks to natural disasters. In highly developed societies, this task is often compounded by associated problems such as aged, overburdened, and complex critical infrastructure systems; 1 the catastrophic potential of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosive (CBRNE) threats; and the increasing interconnectivity of many global systems of transportation and communication.The idea of building resilience to natural and man-made disasters is now a dominant strategic theme and operational goal in the current U.S. national security policy discourse. 2 Yet, even with unlimited resources, it is highly unlikely that a community can prevent or protect itself from all the possible dangers it may face. In the United States for example, complex distribution systems are now the primary mechanism for supplying populations with food and water. Gasoline-powered vehicles remain the dominant mode of transportation. Individuals and organizations build their everyday activities around complex systems over which they have little control, such as electricity, computerized systems, and communication networks supported by distant satellites. Each of these modern conveniences allows communities to function more efficiently. Yet few people maintain a stockpile of food and water or possess alternative modes of transportation, power generation, or communication in the event of an emergency.Meanwhile, governments, communities, and individuals have never been so devastatingly unprepared to cope with disturbances to infrastructure, vital resources, or public goods and services. Part of the problem is that the efficiencies inherent within these complex systems of modern life reduce resilience through a loss in redundancy and diversity. Another aspect is that few systems are designed with resilience as a specification. The ability of these systems to bounce back after a disaster will have a direct impact on the ability of a community to respond and recover. It is thus important to consider all the resources that a community must count on when assessing resilience.Researchers in varied and distinct disciplines have struggled with the concept of resilience in their respective fields for decades. 3 Scholars and practitioners continue to wrestle with this concept in hope of developing useful prescriptive homeland security policy guidance, 4 and community-level assessment tools. 5 While there is still much to debate about how to draft precise definitions of resilience and its attributes, and how to operationalize and apply resilience concepts within each discipline, overlap in the research of each discipline is significant enough to be instructive as to what makes systems resilient.The recent focus on resilience marks a shift from resistance strategies focused solely on the anticipation of risk and the mitigation of vulnerability to more inclusive strategies that integrate both resistance (prevent, protect) and resilience (respond, recover) in the face of disasters. In the past, some scholars have maintained that anticipation strategies should be used to focus on known problems, while those geared towards resilience are better suited for the unknown. It is important to point out that individually, both aspects have shortfalls. Just as planning based on anticipated threats can lead to resource investments to counter hazards that never materialize, planning from the broader resilience standpoint may call for the short-term diversion of resources in an effort to ensure long-term sustainability. 6Compounding the challenge is the difficulty in developing a flexible planning process that responds to changing conditions. …