Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity
Assessment of heavy rainfall-induced disaster potential based on an ensemble simulation of Typhoon Talas (2011) with controlled track and intensity
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-14-2699-2014
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发表时间：
2014-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Y. Oku;J. Yoshino;T. Takemi;H. Ishikawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Oku;J. Yoshino;T. Takemi;H. Ishikawa
抽象的。2011年9月，台风塔拉斯(2011)在日本奇伊半岛引发山体滑坡，造成广泛破坏。本研究的目的是定量描述台风路径轻微扰动或台风加强时发生暴雨灾害的可能性。在考虑台风路径位移的情况下，提出了一种由原台风路径产生不同扰动路径的方法。在这一过程中，应用位涡反演(PVI)方法，在台风登陆前的某一时刻以物理一致的方式人为地移动台风的位置。台风重新定位后，用中尺度气象模式模拟了台风的后续过程。利用由一组具有不同台风路径的实现组成的输出，根据Kii半岛的土壤水分指数(SWI)讨论了最坏的情况。SWI是土壤中代表滑坡灾害危险性的水量的一个指标。最大空间平均SWI是原台风路径的1.10倍。对于较强台风的考虑，采用了相同的方法，但台风的位涡强度是在该位置人为修改的，而不是将位涡重新定位到不同的位置。最大空间平均SWI是原台风强度的1.28倍。
Abstract. Typhoon Talas (2011) caused extensive damage through landslides on the Kii Peninsula, Japan, in September 2011. The purpose of the present study is to quantitatively describe the potential for the occurrence of heavy rainfall-induced disasters if the typhoon track perturbs slightly or the typhoon intensifies. Regarding to the consideration of the track displacement of the typhoon, a procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks perturbed from the original track of the typhoon. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent manner by applying potential vorticity inversion (PVI) methodology. After relocating the typhoon, the subsequent progress is simulated by a mesoscale meteorological model. Using the output, which consists of a set of realizations having different typhoon tracks, the worst-case scenario is discussed in terms of the soil water index (SWI) of the Kii Peninsula. The SWI is an indicator of the amount of water in soil that represents the hazard of landslide disasters. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.10 times as large as that from the original typhoon track. Regarding the consideration of severer typhoon, the same method is used, but the intensity of the potential vorticity of a typhoon is artificially modified at the position instead of relocating potential vorticity to a different place. The maximum spatially averaged SWI is 1.28 times as large as that of the original typhoon intensity.