'A blessing in disguise' or 'as if it wasn't hard enough already': reciprocal and aggravate vulnerabilities in the supply chain
'A blessing in disguise' or 'as if it wasn't hard enough already': reciprocal and aggravate vulnerabilities in the supply chain
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/00207543.2019.1634850
复制
发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
9.2
通讯作者：
Ivanov, Dmitry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ivanov, Dmitry
我们使用离散事件模拟进行现实案例研究，研究供应链 (SC) 中结构和运营漏洞的相互关系。我们对 SC 叠加的概念进行了理论分析，并探索了它们出现的条件。如果因中断而导致供应链结构变化的负面影响被操作环境的变化放大或减轻，就会发生这种重叠。我们假设这些叠加可以是相互的（即互补或减轻）和加剧（即同时或增强）。我们的方法可以通过随时间变化的水平来有效管理供应链弹性能力。我们展示了不同的连锁反应和牛鞭效应概况，这会导致相互叠加或加剧叠加，然后我们就叠加驱动的弹性能力水平动态变化提出建议，以便通过动态冗余分配来增强供应链弹性和效率。结果对于在恢复期间和之后在正确的时间和规模选择和部署运营策略具有重要价值。仅将分析限制在中断期间并忽略容量恢复后的运营动态可能会导致 SC 弹性和恢复政策产生误导或低效。
We investigate the interrelations of structural and operational vulnerabilities in the supply chain (SC) using discrete-event simulation for a real life case study. We theorise a notion of SC overlays and explore conditions surrounding their appearance. Such overlays occur if the negative consequences of changes in a SC structure as a result of a disruption are either amplified or mitigated by changes in the operational environment. We hypothesise that these overlays can be both reciprocal (i.e. complementary or mitigating) and aggravate (i.e. concurrent or enhancing). Our approach can be used for an efficient management of SC resilience capabilities by varying their levels over time. We show different ripple and bullwhip effect profiles, which lead to either reciprocal or aggravate overlays, and then we develop recommendations on the overlay-driven dynamic variation of resilience capability levels in order to enhance both SC resilience and efficiency through dynamic redundancy allocation. The results can be of value in selecting and deploying operational policies at the right time and scale during and after the recovery periods. Restricting analysis to the disruption period only and ignoring operational dynamics after capacity recovery can result in misleading or inefficient SC resilience and recovery policies.