The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19
The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100397
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Yuan, Hsiang-Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hossain, M. Pear;Junus, Alvin;Yuan, Hsiang-Yu
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在世界许多地方迅速蔓延。在暴发早期阶段，许多新报告的COVID-19病例与来自流行地区的旅行史有关（确定为输入病例）。对于没有旅行史的病例，通过社区接触进行更广泛传播的风险更高。然而，大多数人口模型假设感染人群是同质的，而没有考虑输入性病例和由输入性病例感染的继发性病例可能对社区传播构成不同的风险。我们开发了一个“易于使用”的数学框架，从嵌入城市到城市连接的元人口模型扩展到在考虑控制措施时，对来自爆发源地区的输入、二次和其他因素引起的传播波的动态进行分层。利用继发性病例的累积数，我们可以确定社区传播的概率。以武汉市入境人数最多的10个城市为例，首先证明了在繁殖数r = 2.92、潜伏期tau = 5.2天的条件下，可以成功预测这些城市的到达时间和疫情动态。接下来，我们表明，尽管在低R-0（1.4）下，通过强化边境管制措施和缩短隔离时间，控制措施可以获得额外的32.5天和44.0天的到达时间，但如果R-0更高（2.92），每项相同的措施只能获得10天的额外时间。这表明降低传染源地区的发病率以及在易感地区采取传染病控制措施的重要性。这项研究使我们能够利用继发病例的动态，评估边境管制和检疫措施对COVID-19在一个完全互联的世界中出现和全球传播的影响。
The rapid expansion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been observed in many parts of the world. Many newly reported cases of COVID-19 during early outbreak phases have been associated with travel history from an epidemic region (identified as imported cases). For those cases without travel history, the risk of wider spreads through community contact is even higher. However, most population models assume a homogeneous infected population without considering that the imported and secondary cases contracted by the imported cases can pose different risks to community spread.We have developed an "easy-to-use" mathematical framework extending from a meta-population model embedding city-to-city connections to stratify the dynamics of transmission waves caused by imported, secondary, and others from an outbreak source region when control measures are considered. Using the cumulative number of the secondary cases, we are able to determine the probability of community spread.Using the top 10 visiting cities from Wuhan in China as an example, we first demonstrated that the arrival time and the dynamics of the outbreaks at these cities can be successfully predicted under the reproduction number R-0 = 2.92 and incubation period tau = 5.2 days. Next, we showed that although control measures can gain extra 32.5 and 44.0 days in arrival time through an intensive border control measure and a shorter time to quarantine under a low R-0 (1.4), if the R-0 is higher (2.92), only 10 extra days can be gained for each of the same measures. This suggests the importance of lowering the incidence at source regions together with infectious disease control measures in susceptible regions. The study allows us to assess the effects of border control and quarantine measures on the emergence and global spread of COVID-19 in a fully connected world using the dynamics of the secondary cases.