Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
Climate change greatly escalates forest disturbance risks to US property values
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ace639
复制
发表时间：
2023-08
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
W. Anderegg;Timothy W. Collins;S. Grineski;S. Nicholls;C. Nolte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Anderegg;Timothy W. Collins;S. Grineski;S. Nicholls;C. Nolte
预计人为气候变化将导致极端气候事件和野火等对气候敏感的生态系统扰动的增加，并产生巨大的经济影响。迫切需要了解国家和区域范围内气候敏感干扰以及多重干扰对财产价值造成的风险的时空模式，以便为风险管理和政策努力提供信息。在这里，我们结合联合收割机模型为三个主要的气候敏感的干扰（即，野火，气候压力驱动的树木死亡率和昆虫驱动的树木死亡率），这些干扰的未来气候预测，以及高分辨率的属性值数据，以量化整个美国（US）的属性值的时空暴露于干扰。我们发现，在未来的气候情景中，暴露于这些气候敏感干扰的房地产价值急剧增加，特别是在美国西部现有的高风险地区，而在一些目前风险较低的地区，如东南部和五大湖地区，出现了新的暴露风险。与高排放情景相比，将排放量推向低到中等气候未来的气候政策避免了扰动风险暴露的大幅增加。我们的研究结果提供了一个重要的大规模评估气候敏感的干扰风险的财产价值，以帮助通知土地管理和气候适应工作。
Anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive increases in climate extremes and climate-sensitive ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire with enormous economic impacts. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of risk to property values from climate-sensitive disturbances at national and regional scales and from multiple disturbances is urgently needed to inform risk management and policy efforts. Here, we combine models for three major climate-sensitive disturbances (i.e., wildfire, climate stress-driven tree mortality, and insect-driven tree mortality), future climate projections of these disturbances, and high-resolution property values data to quantify the spatiotemporal exposure of property values to disturbance across the contiguous United States (US). We find that property values exposed to these climate-sensitive disturbances increase sharply in future climate scenarios, particularly in existing high-risk regions of the western US, and that novel exposure risks emerge in some currently lower-risk regions such as the southeast and Great Lakes regions. Climate policy that drives emissions towards low-to-moderate climate futures avoids large increases in disturbance risk exposure compared to high emissions scenarios. Our results provide an important large-scale assessment of climate-sensitive disturbance risk to property values to help inform land management and climate adaptation efforts.