Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae)
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae)
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Merler, Stefano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guzzetta, Giorgio;Montarsi, Fabrizio;Merler, Stefano
白纹伊蚊(Skuse，1894)在新的大陆和气候范围内的迅速入侵和传播，为热带虫媒病毒病在入侵地区的出现创造了有利条件。我们使用了2014年在意大利北部十个地点收集的蚊子数量数据，以校准白纹伊蚊的种群模型，并估计在没有控制干预的情况下，输入性人间基孔肯雅或登革热病例产生本地传播条件的可能性。该模型根据当地的温度模式和估计的特定地点的蚊子栖息地适宜性，捕捉到了蚊子数量的年内季节性和跨地点的异质性。后者与当地晚春降雨量呈显著负相关，可能对幼虫繁殖地产生冲刷作用。该模型预测，如果在夏季初至11月中旬期间输入病例，在大多数地点爆发基孔肯雅热的风险很大，平均暴发概率在4.9%至25%之间，具体取决于地点。预计登革热风险较低，在7月中旬至9月中旬期间输入病例的平均概率在4.2%至10.8%之间。这项研究表明了昆虫学和医学综合监测对于评估虫媒病毒病风险的重要性，这是设计具有成本效益的媒介控制计划的前提。
The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability. A robust negative correlation was found between the latter and local late spring precipitations, indicating a possible washout effect on larval breeding sites. The model predicts a significant risk of chikungunya outbreaks in most sites if a case is imported between the beginning of summer and up to mid-November, with an average outbreak probability between 4.9% and 25%, depending on the site. A lower risk is predicted for dengue, with an average probability between 4.2% and 10.8% for cases imported between mid-July and mid-September. This study shows the importance of an integrated entomological and medical surveillance for the evaluation of arboviral disease risk, which is a precondition for designing cost-effective vector control programs.