China's Exchange Rate Policy and Asian Trade
China's Exchange Rate Policy and Asian Trade
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1458287
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发表时间：
2009-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Garcia-Herrero;Tuuli Koivu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Garcia-Herrero;Tuuli Koivu
本文的实证结果表明，中国的贸易收支对人民币真实的有效汇率的波动非常敏感。然而，目前的贸易顺差规模是如此之大，单靠汇率政策可能无法解决失衡问题。人民币汇率上升可能导致的贸易顺差减少是有限的，主要是因为中国进口对人民币升值的反应不如预期--它们往往会下降而不是增加。通过估计中国与主要贸易伙伴的双边进口方程，我们发现中国与东南亚国家的贸易对进口的反应是普遍确定的。这一结果可能归因于亚洲的垂直一体化，因为中国从东南亚进口的很大一部分产品是再出口的。我们还发现，一些亚洲国家的总出口对人民币升值产生了负面反应，这表明亚洲国家的出口依赖于中国的出口。
This paper shows empirically that China's trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi. However, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The potential reduction in the trade surplus resulting from an increase in the renminbi exchange rate is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to a renminbi appreciation - they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations for China and its major trade partners, we find that the reaction for imports is generally confirmed for China's trade with Southeast Asian countries. That result might be attributable to Asia's vertical integration, as a large share of Chinese imports from Southeast Asia are re-exported. We also find that total exports from a number of Asian countries react negatively to a renminbi appreciation, which points to a dependence of Asian countries' exports on those of China.