Quasi-experimental evidence for the importance of accounting for fear when evaluating catastrophic events
Quasi-experimental evidence for the importance of accounting for fear when evaluating catastrophic events
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DOI：
10.1007/s00181-016-1084-6
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Nakanishi, Hayato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nakanishi, Hayato
这项研究探讨了会计罕见的，但灾难性的事件的重要性，即使发生的概率是非常低的，这是经常被忽视的预期效用时，考虑。为了提供经验证据，我们展示了与日本政府关于发生概率极低的灾难性地震和海啸的损害报告有关的土地价格变化。虽然这种关系在以前的研究中已经研究过，但存在一些明显的缺点。一是对处理组之间的属性控制，即土地所在区域的信息更新，与对照组之间的属性控制不足。第二，理性行为和评估结果之间的联系没有建立起来。本研究针对这两点，并更新了这方面的调查结果。我们发现，本文提出的估计结果与以前的作品提出的结果相匹配，证实了数据和理性行为之间的既定联系表明，即使发生概率极低，也要考虑此类灾难性事件的重要性。
This study examines the importance of accounting for rare but catastrophic events even if the probability of occurrence is extremely low, which is often ignored when expected utility is considered. To provide empirical evidence for this, we present the land price change related to the Japanese government's report on the damage of catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis whose probability of occurrence is extremely low. While this relationship has been studied in previous research, there are some notable shortcomings. Firstly, the control of the attributes between the treatment group, namely the land in the area where information is updated, and the control group is insufficient. Secondly, the link between rational behavior and the estimation result is not established enough. This study addresses these two points and updates the findings in this regard. We find that the estimated results presented herein match those proposed by previous works, confirming that the established link between the data and rational behavior suggests the importance of accounting for such catastrophic events even if their probability of occurrence is extremely low.