Studies of the Optimal Use and Economic Value of Weather andClimate Information

这项研究的总体目标是调查天气和气候信息的最佳利用和经济价值。对天气和/或气候信息敏感的决策情况的静态和动态模型，以及适当的经济模型，将用于研究这些使用/价值问题。研究的重点是这种模型的制定、分析和应用，以及对各种气象信息的使用和价值的评估--以及对这些信息的质量/价值关系的评估--特别是决策问题。研究的具体目标涉及对以前工作的重要扩展，包括：(A)在同时考虑短期和长期战略和/或短期和长期战略和/或短期和长期信息的情况下制定和应用决策模型；(B)分析决策者的风险偏好对气象信息的使用和价值的影响；(C)制定和应用获得这种信息对生产者和消费者总价值的市场水平估计的方法。我们将考察原型应用程序和实际应用程序。该项目之所以重要，是因为它应该提供更现实的天气/气候敏感决策情况模型、关于气象信息的使用和价值的更可信的结果、以及关于这种信息的质量/价值关系的更可靠的特征。

The overall objective of this research is to investigate the optimal use and economic value of weather and climate information. Static and dynamic models of decision-making situations that are sensitive to weather and/or climate information, together with appropriate economic, models, will be used to study these use/value issues. The research focuses on the formulation, analysis, and application of such models, and on the evaluation of the use and value of various types of meteorological information - and the assessment of quality/value relationships for such information - in particular decision- making problems. Specific objectives of the research relates to important extensions of previous work including: (a) formulation and application of decision-making models in situations involving the simultaneous consideration of short-term and long-term strategies and/or short-term and long-term strategies and/or short range and long-range information; (b) the analysis of the effects of decision makers' risk preferences on the use and value of meteorological information; and (c) the development and application of methods of obtaining market level estimates of the overall value of such information to producers and consumers. Both prototype and real-world applications will be examined. This project is important because it should provide more realistic models of weather/climate sensitive decision-making situations, more credible results concerning the use and value of meteorological information, and more reliable characterizations of quality/value relationships for such information.