Design Principles for Computer Assisted Multiattribute Preference Modelling and Assessment: A Behavioral Approach

这项研究有两个基本目标：(1)更多地了解人们是如何做出复杂决策的；(2)开发和测试基于计算机的决策支持系统，旨在提高此类决策的质量。该研究考虑了导致决策困难的两个因素。首先是不确定每个决策选择的后果，特别是在存在重大损失风险的情况下。第二是存在相互冲突的多个目标，从而迫使决策者在目标之间做出权衡。提出了两种类型的研究活动。它包括实验室和实地研究，旨在更多地了解直觉决策策略以及这些策略的潜在偏见和其他缺点。这样的研究很重要，因为它可以预测直觉决策过程可能导致的潜在偏差或错误。其次，计算机软件将被设计用于提高涉及风险和目标冲突的决策的质量。这种基于计算机的决策支持系统很重要，因为它们可以显著改善商业、政府、医学和工程方面的决策过程。它们甚至可能有助于消费者做出涉及重大财务或健康结果的复杂决定。

The proposed research has two basic objectives: (1) to learn more about how people make complex decisions, and (2) to develop and test computer-based decision support systems that are intended to improve the quality of such decisions. The research considers two factors that make decisions difficult. The first is uncertainty about what the consequences of each decision alternative will be, especially in cases where there is the risk of a substantial loss. The second is the presence of multiple objectives that conflict with one another, thus forcing decision makers to make tradeoffs among objectives. Two types of research activities are proposed. It involves laboratory and field studies designed to learn more about intuitive decision making strategies and the potential biases and other shortcomings of these strategies. Such research is important because it allows the anticipation potential biases or errors that may result from intuitive decision making processes. Second, computer software will be designed to improve the quality of decisions involving risk and conflicting objectives. Such computer-based decision support systems are important because they may significantly improve decision making processes in business, government, medicine, and engineering. They may even be helpful to consumers making complex decisions involving substantial financial or health outcomes.