A Holocene history of rainfall extremes for the South Pacific

该项目旨在生成南半球有史以来最长的极端降雨记录（11700年），该记录将用于更新概率复发间隔，并为全球变暖的未来风险提供信息。我们将运用古气候方法研究极端事件的科学，通过使用来自石笋的代理数据来研究全新世的自然降雨变化。结合最新的全球气候模式对全新世三个主要气候事件的模拟，我们将确定强降雨事件长期变化的机制。该项目将为澳大利亚和太平洋岛屿提供重大利益，帮助我们预测和准备2022年经历的洪水。

The project aims to generate the longest ever record of rainfall extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (11,700 years) that will be used to update probabilistic recurrence intervals and inform future risks in a warming world. We will apply a palaeoclimate approach to the science of extreme events by using proxy data from stalagmites to investigate natural rainfall variability during the Holocene. Combined with state of the art Global Climate Model simulations for three major climate events of the Holocene, we will identify mechanisms of long term shifts in heavy rainfall events. The project will provide significant benefits for Australia and the Pacific islands in terms of prediction and preparedness for deluges like we experienced in 2022.