Market Uncertainty and Government Policy

这个项目继续研究市场的不确定性，经济本身产生的不确定性。特别是，该项目从各种模型(1)面对更普遍的彩票装置和(2)面对合作个体联盟形成的可能性时分析太阳黑子平衡的稳定性。这项研究工作的初始阶段将是对具有不可分割商品的经济中的随机均衡分析的结果。该项目还继续分析政府税收政策在跨期资源分配中的作用，包括它们在市场不确定的经济体中的作用。经济参与者必须面对不确定性做出决策。这种不确定性部分源于经济基本面的不确定性——品味、禀赋、生产可能性，甚至政府政策。传统的一般经济均衡理论成功地模拟了这种不确定性。这个项目解决了个人实际面临的另一个重要的不确定性来源。这是市场的不确定性，经济本身产生的不确定性，经济结果的不确定性（如价格、净交易、就业和通货膨胀率）。例如，商人们想知道消费者的信心是高还是低，信贷是松还是紧，美元是强还是弱，等等。市场不确定性是一个具有明显社会重要性的问题。例如，宏观经济学家会问，政府应该采取什么政策来抵消经济本身产生的干扰。当我们设计组织——或者，更一般地说，选择机制——我们想知道不确定性是如何被这些新的组织形式创造和传播的。该项目通过扩展市场不确定性的正式模型，即研究者首创的所谓“太阳黑子平衡”模型，有助于我们对这种不确定性的理解。

This project continues research on market uncertainty, the uncertainty generated by the economy itself. In particular, the project analyzes the stability of sunspot equilibria from various models (1) in the face of more general lottery devices and (2) in the face of the possibility of the formation of coalitions of cooperating individuals. The initial phase of this research effort will be an outgrowth of the analysis of stochastic equilibria in economies with indivisible commodities. The project also continues the analysis of the role of government tax policies in the intertemporal allocation of resources, including their role in economies in which there is market uncertainty. Economic actors must make decision in face of uncertainty. Some of this uncertainty is the result of uncertainty about economic fundamentals-- tastes, endowments, production possibilities, and even government policies. This type of uncertainty is successfully modelled by conventional general economic equilibrium theory. This project addressed another, significant source of uncertainty which individuals actually face. This is market uncertainty, uncertainty generated within the economy itself, uncertainty about the economic outcomes (such as prices, net trades, employment, and the inflation rate) given the fundamental parameters. Businessmen, for example, wonder whether consumers' confidence will be high or low, whether credit will be loose or tight, whether the dollar will be strong or weak, and so forth. Market uncertainty is a subject of obvious social importance. Macroeconomists, for example, ask what policies should the government take to counteract disturbances generated by the economy itself. When we design organizations -- or, more generally choose mechanisms -- we shall want to know how uncertainty is created and transmitted by these new organizational forms. This project contributes to our understanding of this type of uncertainty by extending formal models of market uncertainty, i.e., the so-called "sunspot equilibrium" models pioneered by the investigator.